Cooper Webb came into the Glendale, Arizona round of Monster Energy AMA Supercross tied on points with Eli Tomac, but now leaves seven points down after taking fourth behind Eli’s victory. The Arizona races have historically been very good for Tomac, as he’s now the winningest rider ever in the Phoenix/Glendale races, plus the high-speed layout of the track would appear to be a strength for him. This was further accentuated by the Triple Crown format, which neutralizes Webb’s late-race smarts and charges. Webb did, of course, actually win a Triple Crown earlier this year in Arlington, but that was a wild night, where he built 5-2-1 finishes to win that one.
You know the usual story on Webb building his day. In practice, he was off, his best time more than a second off of Tomac. That looked worrying. But he generated more speed when he needed it in the first race of the night show, staying close enough to Tomac to apply pressure throughout the race. As per usual, it looked like Webb would flip a day when he was way off in practice and turn it into another great night.
That changed in race two. Webb’s start wasn’t terrible, but this time Jason Anderson and Ken Roczen were between him and Eli, and he spent the race battling them while Tomac and Chase Sexton duked it out for the lead. Ending up behind Anderson was costly, as Webb tried to get aggressive to make a pass, then Anderson got him back in the next corner and held him up enough for Justin Barica to get around, also. If you’re a rider trying desperately to get back up to Tomac, Anderson and Barcia are the last guys you want to have to deal with.
So how did Cooper end up back there? Much has been made of Webb’s odd gate pick decision in Race 2. Tomac used a gate outside of the starter’s box to holeshot Race 1. Webb started closer to the inside and emerged in third. Not bad. But then for Race 2, Webb decided to go even further outside, actually outside of Tomac. It didn’t work. Tomac beat him out of the gate, and Webb was on the outside coming into the first rhythm and lost positions.
We texted Webb today to get his explanation as to why he started that far outside. Actually, the answer should have been obvious if you go back and watch the start of Race 1. There Colt Nichols used that outside gate to get a second-place start! In Race 1, Webb, in fact, beat Nichols to turn one, but Nichols had more speed coming into the first rhythm from the outside, and that allowed him to go right by Webb. Yes, that gate was way out there, but Nichols showed it worked well.
The way Webb saw it, he can either get the jump on Eli and try to control the start on his title rival, or, if that doesn’t work out, still emerge second just like Nichols did in Race 1.
If you go and look at the start of Race 2, that plan is materializing. Yes, Tomac got the jump, but Coop still looks good coming into turn one. He could still emerge in second place. The difference? In Race 2, Jason Anderson begins to drift out from the inside and that holds up Cooper just enough. Tomac gets through, Webb does not, and now Tomac has a bigger edge.
In hindsight, going that far outside wasn’t the best move, as Webb told us today “Well, it was a mistake.” But that’s only what you know when speaking after the fact. Nichols used that same gate to great success in Race 1. Webb tried it in Race 2, and the difference was small but significant. In short Triple Crown races on a track that didn’t lead to much passing, Webb ending up behind Anderson, and that changed the night.
Said James Stewart on his Bubba’s World podcast. “That start right there, Eli was in front of him, Cooper got a bad start,” said Stewart. “Who knows where the end of this series is going to be, but that gate pick, that choice on the gate, that could cost him a title.”
Go to 6 minute mark to see Ricky Carmichael and Ryan Villopoto break down these starts.
Seems crazy for one gate pick to hold that kind of weight, but this is what happens when a points race is this close. Every tiny decision ends up having magnified repercussions. Still, when we analyze every start this closely, you tend to forget how much racing is left. There are still five remaining rounds. Webb will have plenty of chances to get those points back.
"Not the greatest of days, but not particularly bad either,” said Webb in a KTM press release. “I was equal third in points on the night, but fourth overall given my last race finishing place, and with 2-5-4 finishes. These Triple Crown races can really swing either way when it comes to points – be really good to you or be costly in points if you let them. In the first race, I rode pretty well and was battling up front for second place, but I just didn’t ride that great in the second and third races, made too many little mistakes and passing was really tough, which cost me the overall podium. I think things will be a lot better in Atlanta next week – I really like racing in ATL. It will be back to a normal Main Event format, so we will regroup and look to make back those championship points I lost out on tonight."
