Colorado in the summer might be the most beautiful state in the union (or winter, if you’re a snow goer). The backdrop for the Toyota Thunder Valley National is nothing short of awesome, adding context and flavor to an already great race. The track can be really good, too, provided weather and track prep agree. The tough part of this race is the elevation and what it does to the motorcycle and man. The bikes will be incredibly slow, and the breathing will be elevated. Also, higher temps “feel” hotter at elevation. Those are real challenges that teams will be trying to sort, and trainers will hoping to mitigate. Still, this is a race that everyone typically enjoys. There are a few races that riders simply grit their teeth and bear, this is not one of those.
In the 250’s, Haiden Deegan has been a revelation. A huge, helicoptering crash in moto two is all that’s stood in the way of a four moto sweep to open the season. Was Vialle catching him in that moto? Yes. Was it a lock that he would pass him? Absolutely not. Leads often ebb and flow and we will never know. But we do know that Deegs is absolutely for real and the man to beat so far.
I am most intrigued by Levi Kitchen as we enter round 3. This is a track he rides well. Remember, he beat Jett Lawrence straight up here in 2022 and will use that confidence as he inches toward the weekend. He needs to log a few moto wins to swing the points back his way and also to send a message that he’s going to be a legit title threat. He is the best version of himself that we have ever seen but to win the title, he will need to first win motos. It’s not simple to do but the concept is simple to understand.
In the 450’s, it’s absolute pandemonium. Jett’s get-off shook up anything and everything we thought we knew. The points are in turmoil, the narratives are all in doubt, and I’m on the edge of my seat. For over a year, we have known that Jett was probably going to win and there was likely not much anyone could do to stop it. Now, Sexton has his mojo back and Jett is dealing with an injury (the severity of which we shall learn). Will Jett just go back to winning like nothing ever happened? Has Chase broken through and gotten his groove back like Stella? Is AP going to sing the national anthem in Colorado? These are all questions to be answered. I love that we don’t have firm answers beforehand. The sport needs uncertainty and suspense. Roll on, boys.
Who’s Hot:
Haiden Deegan has won three out of the first four motos thus far. His mistake in moto two was notable as Tom Vialle was attempting to pressure Deegs but I believe he would vehemently disagree with that sentence.
Tom Vialle showed his prowess in the above scenario and will look to build on that momentum in Colorado.
Chance Hymas has tied for third overall at the opening two rounds. His improvement in the last couple of months has been an absolute revelation. Good for him.
Levi Kitchen enters arguably his best racetrack and will have confidence on his side Saturday. If he holeshots, buckle up.
Chase Sexton won a moto for the first time since 2022. That breakthrough ride will be tested every time the gate drops, though, as Jett will want to reestablish dominance.
Aaron Plessinger led 99 percent of the second moto but he wins the podium presence award every single time. The guy is awesome.
Hunter Lawrence is still fighting the 450 dynamic in late laps, but he’s been very, very good. He will win something this summer.
Who’s Not:
Jo Shimoda is off to a slow-ish start and sits 35 points down already. This is not the fix he was looking for.
Jett suffered the worst result of his 450 career and will look to bounce back this weekend. How injured is he? Did he lose any confidence? All questions will be on the table Saturday.
Phil Nicoletti suffered a knee injury at Hangtown and will miss some time.
Bold Predictions:
Chase Sexton races with horse blinders on so he only sees what’s directly in front of him.
Phil Nicoletti borrows a knee from one of the 1200 ClubMX kids training there.
All eyes are on the mountainous backdrop to see if storm clouds come billowing over. I wear a hat for the second time in 2024.
Justin Barcia fires his house cleaner, accountant, and landscape crew in hopes of getting his 450 to handle better.
